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Major infectious diseases – England and Scotland update, week 15

This will be a quick update only as I am officially on holiday. The weather on the North Coast of Scotland has been fabulous this week – sunshine, blue sky, warm for April except for a nippy cold wind, and no midges. Wish I could stay here longer.

All disease indicators seem to be going down except Rhinovirus positivity. UKHSA has not released the Pillar 1 data in their spreadsheets, but the most recent data show some decline, albeit at a possibly slower rate – 15-19 and 85+ might actually be going up again!

Scotland follows a similar pattern, with sharp declines in most age classes, except for 85+. Their wave seems to be following the English one by about 3 weeks.

English Flu and RSV are also (slightly) down, following the seasonal pattern.

Scarlet Fever levels have again massively dropped and I hope this is a real drop, not due to reporting.

Finally, there is a slight uptick in the Rhinovirus positivity, although the number of positive samples going slightly down. I expect the numbers to be stable before rising up again in summer.

India update

There is a bit of evidence of slowing down in India, where the Arcturus strain continues to grow. After a “usual” few days’ drop, the numbers are picking up again.

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