Another week, another update. TL&DR: all indicators are going down. We are not out of the woods yet, I think, but it is all good news for Covid, flu, RSV and even Scarlet fever.
Admissions and cases are both going down. As described in a previous post, the deaths basically followed the same shape as the last few waves, reoccurring roughly every 3 months.
A big wave has not materialised yet, so I expect this wave to peter out for another 2-3 weeks until it starts growing again.
The numbers are definitely down, and it certainly looks like the 2019-20 season. I fully expect the numbers to continue falling down (although there might still be some upward correction to this and last week’s reading).
The rate and positivity are declining, and the wave starts looking like another pre-pandemic year. Hopefully, this means that the 2022 summer and autumn outbreak is now finished, and we are back to the seasonal pattern.
Scarlet fever cases are still high (note the logarithmic scale below), but dropping down. This decline from very high numbers might mask the fact that the disease usually peaks in late winter and early spring (or at least it was doing this pre-pandemic).
But I still expect we will struggle with it for at least several months before the big drop in summer.