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Flu, RSV and Covid – Week 47 updates

TL&DR: Flu and RSV continue to be a threat, with an increasing number of cases and hospitalisation. Covid was still in decline last week, but that has now changed, and some age groups see an increase. Note this is week 47 data released in week 48.

Flu cases have been rising since late summer, with % positive samples higher than in typical years. We might not yet see the rapid rise that was seen around that time of the year in 2019 and a bit later in 2018, but the numbers in week 47 can be revised upwards next week.

RSV is also on the rise, both in terms of positivity, hospital admission rate and hospital numbers. The hospitalisation rate almost exactly follows the 2019-20 curve. The positivity in 0-4 years age class continues to rise rapidly.

Covid positivity was still declining last week (week 47) but the rate shows some signs of slowing down (the last point is usually revised upwards in the following week). The number of cases is clearly levelling off.

The numbers have already started going up as seen in the most recent data, compared here between England and Scotland. Both 0-19 years old and 45-64 see higher numbers this week (week 48) than in week 47. Perhaps too early yet to call a start of the new wave, but we are definitely not going down anymore.

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