Monkeypox: future scenarios

Over the last month or so there has been considerable interest in the spread of #monkeypox – a virus from the same family as smallpox, but less infectious and deadly. But, what is likely to happen over the next few weeks or months with the new epidemic?

My new article in @ConversationUK is now out, exploring some scenarios of what might be happening to the #monkeypox epidemic in the near and further future.

There is a mathematical detail behind the figures in the article. The equations, modelling assumptions, and details of how the parameters were chosen, are available on this blog on a separate page.

A disclaimer: I do not pretend I have a working model of the 2022 monkeypox outbreak. The aim is to produce believable scenarios of what could happen in the near future. All modelling is based on the data up to June 17th, 2022. As new data emerge, the picture is likely to change!